Existence Risks
Words on this page that have been underlined and italicized can be found in the glossary on the right-hand side of the page.
Overview
An existence risk is an activity which may or may not occur. By default:
- All activities start out with an existence probability of 100%, meaning they will occur in every iteration during the simulation
- When an existence probability of less than 100% is entered, the duration is zeroed out for those iterations that it's sampled as not occurring
| Example | Option 1 | Option 2 |
|---|---|---|
| Schedule resubmittal | Including in the duration range results in an overly pessimistic distribution on the submittal activity | Successor activity to schedule submittal with 0 day duration, existence probability <100% |
| Risk of encountering contaminated soil during excavation | Including as a risk impact may conflate weather modeling | Insert activity with 0 day duration, existence probability <100% |
Designating Existence Risks
- Click the Ranging
driver. - Click the View button above the top list and choose Duration Ranging.
- Scroll to the desired activity.
- Enter a value less than 100% in the Existence Probability column.
Tip
To turn on the Existence Probability column, see Customizing Columns.
